Raucher oder Nichtraucher – ist das die Frage? Wahlbeteiligung und Abstimmungsverhalten beim Volksentscheid über das Rauchverbot in Bayern

The successful Bavarian smoking-restriction referendum often was viewed as a conflict between smokers and non-smokers. In this paper, we investigate the role of smoking behavior on mobilization and voter choice using data from a rolling-cross-section survey conducted in the run-up to the referendum. The results indicate that smoking behavior did not affect campaign interest and factual knowledge about the proposal. At the same time, non-smokers were more inclined to participate in the referendum than smokers. What is more, vote choice in the referendum was affected strongly by smoking behavior: a large majority of non-smokers voted for the proposal, whereas a large majority of smokers voted against it. Given the polarization in vote choice and non-smokers' reluctance to vote against the antismoking proposal, attempts to revise the decision on anti-smoking policy are unlikely to succeed. Accordingly, the referendum appears to have settled the conflict on anti-smoking policy in Bavaria.