"Ma'ariv": The Trial Polls Predicted the Electoral Upset / "מעריב": הקלפיות הניסיוניות חזו את המהפך

In May 1992, a month and a half before the elections in Israel, the daily Ma'ariv launched a project to monitor the voter preference of various groups by setting up four trial polls at central locations. The first group to be polled was soldiers, with the polls positioned next to the sports stadium in Tel Aviv where large numbers of soldiers — mostly combat soldiers — get lifts to their bases. Most of the soldiers were glad to cooperate, and the results of 946 votes were astonishing: Labor received 31%, Meretz (a left-of-center composite party) 21%, and Likud 17.5%. The two left-wing parties combined received a majority of 62 of the 120 mandates. The scent of an electoral upset was in the air. Meanwhile, the composition of the post-election issue of the paper was planned. A major problem was the restrictive 1:00 a.m. print deadline, which left little time for nationwide coverage in view of the 10:00 p.m. closing of the polls. The second group to be polled was new immigrants, and the four polls were set up outside the Ministry of Immigrant Absorption in Tel Aviv, in Hebrew-language teaching centers and at a "Fun Day" event in Rehovot. The 581 new immigrants from Russia who participated in the trial poll, like the soldiers, also indicated a decisive victory for labor, which won 56 mandates, while Meretz won 14 mandates, the Likud 18, the immigrant's Da Party 9, and the small rightist parties a total of 11. A survey published by Ma'ariv at the end of May by statisticians Hanokh and Rafi Smith also showed a large advantage for Labor — 36% — with Likud 27%, Meretz 10% and the National Religious Party 4%. Ma'ariv then decided that should the TV election sample at 10:00 p.m. on election night indicate an electoral upset as well, the paper would close early and feature the announcement of the upset, without waiting for final results. The third poll was set up at the gate of the Ramat Gan football stadium just before the national cup final in June, with the participation of 1,100 fans. The results were: Labor over 34%, Likud 33.4%, Meretz 7%, Moledet (right-wing) 7%, and Tsomet (right-wing) 6%. The same week, Hanokh and Rafi Smith estimated Labor at 35%, Likud 27% and Meretz 9%. The final Ma'ariv poll was held in three neighborhoods in the Tel Aviv area: Pardess Katz, the Hatikva Quarter and Neveh Sharett, and the 908 participants voted 45.3% Likud, 23.2% Labor, 5.7% Shas (a religious party), 4.7% Tsomet, and 4.4% Pikanti (a one-man party). Although this would appe