ESTABILIZACIÓN Y AJUSTE CON DESIGUALDAD Y POBREZA: EL CASO DE MÉXICO

Este artículo analiza la relación entre el ajuste macroeconómico, la pobreza y la desigualdad en México durante los años ochenta. Mediante la descomposición de varios índices se intenta determinar si los costos y beneficios surgidos del proceso se distribuyeron de manera equitativa, verificar si el patrón de desarrollo corresponde al proceso Kuznets y analizar cambios en la pobreza. Se propone una transformación de un método originalmente utilizado para descomponer la pobreza, para estimar la probabilidad de compensar en el futuro a los sectores más afectados por las medidas contraccionarias. Los resultados suigieren que el ajuste fue acompañado por aumentos en la desigualdad y la pobreza. La conclusión central es que se presentó un importante cambio en la estructura de la economía, y como resultado no será suficiente alcanzar elevadas tasas de crecimiento económico para erradicar la pobreza en un periodo razonable, sino que será necesario reducir la desigualdad considerablemente. The paper analyzes the relationship between adjustment, poverty and inequality for Mexico during the 1980s. We rely on decompositions of inequality and poverty indexes to determine if the costs and benefits during the process were distributed in an egalitarian way, if the pattern of development corresponds to the Kuznets process, and to analyze changes in poverty. We suggest a transformation of a poverty decomposition method to determine the likelihood of compensating in the future those sectors of the population who paid the higher social costs derived from the contractionary policies. The results suggest that adjustment and stabilization were accompanied by increases in inequality and poverty. The main conclusion is that through the process, an important change in the structure of the economy took place, and as a result, despite high growth rates, considerable reductions in inequality are necessary for the eradication of poverty in a feasible time horizon. The paper analyzes the relationship between adjustment, poverty and inequality for Mexico during the 1980s. We rely on decompositions of inequality and poverty indexes to determine if the costs and benefits during the process were distributed in an egalitarian way, if the pattern of development corresponds to the Kuznets process, and to analyze changes in poverty. We suggest a transformation of a poverty decomposition method to determine the likelihood of compensating in the future those sectors of the population who paid the