Anticipatory-Conjectural Policy Problems: A Case Study of the Avian Influenza

Rarely, if ever, is the American policymaking process described as being a proactive one wherein policymakers strive to stave off or prepare for problems that have yet to have any substantive impact on a given population. Such problems, or “anticipatory‐conjectural policy problems,” are marked by acute uncertainty and thus demand a reconsideration of many of our fundamental assumptions about the nature of public policymaking. Using the H5N1 strain of avian influenza as a case study, the following work seeks to expand Thomas Birkland's concept of focusing events to encompass anticipatory‐conjectural policy problems. In addition, I will explore the unique agenda setting dynamics of these problems, paying particularly close attention to their definitional characteristics.