Sensitivity analyses in multiattribute decision support for offsite nuclear emergency and recovery management

Purpose Emergency situations may differ in many ways but they share some common characteristics, such as the sudden onset and the need to transparently evaluate various usually conflicting objectives. In nuclear power generation, however, emergency situations constitute a special challenge. The focus of this paper is to highlight the role of multicriteria decision analysis MCDA in nuclear emergency and recovery management on the basis of a hypothetical case study. Designmethodologyapproach Multiattribute value theory as one field of research within MCDA is introduced. Special emphasis is placed on the modelling of the decision makers' preferences which is a crucial part in any multicriteria analysis. A central aim is to facilitate the preference elicitation in group decision processes. Findings The management of emergency situations in nuclear power generation necessitates the consideration of technical, economic, environmental, sociopsychological and political aspects. Furthermore, various stakeholder and expert groups with diverse background knowledge and different views, responsibilities and interests are involved in such a decisionmaking process. MCDA can help to take into account various incommensurable aspects and the subjective preferences of the decision makers and thus contribute to transparency and traceability of decisionmaking processes. Since the preference parameters are inherently afflicted with uncertainties, thorough sensitivity analyses are important to visualise the impact of the uncertainties in an understandable way. Originalityvalue A new approach to sensitivity analysis is proposed, allowing one to comprehensibly visualise and communicate the impact of the uncertainties associated with the subjective preference parameters on the results of the decision analysis.