Five tools to prepare for future discontinuities

Purpose - Because most observers ordinarily view the future as an extrapolation of current trends, they are unprepared for discontinuities. The paper aims to urge that leaders foster a culture of open mindedness to better imagine and prepare for discontinuity.Design methodology approach - Based on best practice experimentation the authors suggest five "tools" that are useful for achieving a discontinuous mindset.Findings - To achieve a discontinuous mindset, managers need not turn their back on current forecasting activities, but they do need to balance them, intellectually, with considerations of longer-term uncertainties.Practical implications - Although the authors appreciate the value of innovative planning techniques - scenario planning, diversity planning, reverse-engineering the future, developing a 25-year business plan and culture-based planning - they propose that a discontinuous mindset and the five tools to develop it are the best defenses against unanticipated disruption of markets.Originality value - The five tools for developing a discontinuous mindset offer a fresh take on how leaders can come to grips with an uncertain future.