Impact of mass gain, tailwind and age on the performance of Usain Bolt from Beijing 2008 to Rio 2016

Despite the impressiveness of the sprints run by Usain Bolt, the question naturally arises of why he has not been able to break the 100 m sprint world record he set in Berlin (2009). In this paper, we address such a query by considering Bolt's condition and the prevailing circumstances during the sprints that took place in Beijing 2008, Berlin 2009, London 2012, Moscow 2013, Beijing 2015 and Rio 20163. Using the analytical mechanical model by Hernández-Gómez et al (2013), we analyse all the events, equating what we thought were the principal factors a priori: tailwind, weight gain and age. Despite what one might expect about the role of age in such a high-performance athlete as Usain Bolt, our results show that his performance has been essentially constant from Beijing 2009 to Rio 2016, with the mass gain and tailwind conditions making the difference in the run times he has achieved since Berlin 2009. Actually, our analysis suggests that in equal mass and tailwind conditions, his world record could actually have been set at Beijing 2015.