Resilience thinking improves SEA: a discussion paper

Strategic environmental assessment is often referred to as a tool for predicting the consequences of planned development. The assumption of predictability of outcomes is inconsistent with reality which is characterised by uncertainty and complexity. Furthermore, the capacity of our life support systems to absorb disturbance and re-organise without changing into undesirable states appears to be of critical importance. Resilience thinking provides a structured way of looking at complexity, uncertainty and interrelatedness of systems and processes, and above all, provides us with new ways of dealing with planning and more effective use of SEA. Resilience thinking provides inspiration for those who want to extend their thinking about sustainability, but it also challenges some ideas underpinning the impact assessment profession (the future is unpredictable; change is inevitable; increasing stability leads to vulnerability). This paper is the result of a lively and well-visited workshop on resilience thinking and SEA at the 2010 IAIA conference in Geneva. It introduces the basic concepts of resilience thinking, and develops ideas for its integration within SEA practice.