Voter Dealignment or Campaign Effects? Accounting for Political Preferences in Ontario

Because there are rarely delays in counting votes in Canadian elections, the typical US exit polls would not serve their intended purpose. However, the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion & Policy mounted one exit poll in Ontario to determine the feasibility of exit pools in Canada & to learn right on the spot, not surmise from media analyses of the elections, why individuals vote & why they back selected parties, revealing links among individuals' attitudes, demographic background, & political behavior. This article analyzes the poll results of 635 voters, a 65% response rate. The exercise was a success. It not only predicted the correct winner but also provided data with which to test assumptions about provincial voting behavior, including the fact that campaigns play a larger role in voter behavior than had previously been assumed. Tables, References. S. Stanton