Wheat production forecasting for a predominantly unirrigated region in Madhya Pradesh )India

The area under wheat was estimated and a forecast of production made in a predominantly un-irrigated region (36 per cent irrigated wheal crop, geographical area 5-61 Mha) of Madhya Pradesh (India) using digital data from LISS-I (Linear Imaging Self Scanner) onboard Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS-IB), for the crop season 1991-92. A stratified sampling approach based on 5 km by 5 km sample segments, 10 per cent sampling fraction in conjunction with supervised maximum likelihood (MXL) classification was used for wheat acreage estimation. Yield forecasts were based on an optimal combination of forecasts from two different methodologies, viz., wheat yield-spectral relationship and time series analysis using ARIMA (Auloregressive Integrated Moving Average) approach. In the former, a two-year (1989-90, 1990-91) pooled regression relating LISS-I derived Near Infrared/Red (NIR/R) radiance ratio to district wheat yields was developed and used to forecast wheat yields for the year 1991-92 based on classified wheat pixels. In the latter case, historical district-wise wheat yield data of 35 years was used to develop appropriate ARIMA models and used to forecast 1991-92 yields. The relative deviation of remotely-sensed-based forecasted production, acreage and yield from the post-harvest estimates released later by the State Department of Agriculture were - 15.8, - 1002 and - 601 per cent, respectively. The acreage and yield meet the accuracy of 85 per cent at 90 and 95 per cent confidence levels, respectively.