Nonpsychiatric Predictors of Narcotic Dependence: A Prospective Study with a 5-Year Follow-Up

In a 5-year prospective follow-up study of narcotic addicts we were unable to identify any strong predictors of outcome. A review of the literature and, where possible, a reanalysis of published data essentially confirmed this conclusion. It may be that concurrent environmental and intrapersonal factors are the major determinants. The relationships between prior history and those factors may be so weak as to make the historical variables of limited utility.