Evaluation of a computer-based caries risk assessment program in an elderly group of individuals

The aim of this study was to evaluate a caries risk assessment computer program, the Cariogram, by comparing the risk assessment of the program with the actual caries increment in a group of elderly individuals over a period of 5 years. The participants were examined and interviewed at baseline about their general health and dietary habits. Data on oral hygiene and use of fluoride were obtained and saliva analyses included mutans streptococci, lactobacilli, buffering capacity, and secretion rate. Based on the baseline recordings, the individuals were divided into 4 risk groups according to the Cariogram. Where the program predicted 0%-20% (high risk), 21%-40%, 41%-60%, and 61%-100% (low/rather low risk) "chance of avoiding caries", 13, 32, 23, and 48% respectively, had no new DFS over 5 years and 18, 40, 72, and 84%, respectively, had no new lesions at the 5th year. The mean DMFS increment over 5 years was 12.8 in the high/rather high risk group (0%-40% "chance of avoiding caries"), which included 43% of the individuals. In the low/rather low risk group (61%-100% "chance of avoiding caries"), the corresponding value was 5.2%, and 21% of the participants were sorted to this group. The mean DMFS increment for the whole group of elderly individuals was 9.5. In this particular study the Cariogram was able to sort the elderly individuals into risk groups that reflected the actual caries outcome.