Probabilistic Techno-economic Design of Isolated Microgrid

Isolated microgrid (MG) proved its potential to electrify the remote community through the cheaper and greener renewable energy alternatives with higher reliability than the weak grid. The goal of universal electricity access and the climate change mitigation paves the way for many public/private owned microgrids in remote areas. Having in mind various uncertainties associated with the design parameters of the MG (e.g., temperature, irradiation, load), this paper presents a probabilistic approach for optimal sizing and techno-economic assessment of the PV-based MG. The potential environmental impact of the isolated MG is taken into account by considering both, the PV/Battery, and more conventional PV/Battery/Diesel Generator configuration. The effectiveness of multi-year data over the single year data in the probabilistic approach is demonstrated. The probabilistic techno-economic analysis of different configurations facilitates informed decision making regarding the configuration and size of MG components while meeting the reliability of supply and environmental constraints. The feasibility and affordability of the configurations are demonstrated through the distribution of net present cost, levelized cost of energy and the unmet load percentage.