Healthcare Operations and Black Swan Event for COVID-19 Pandemic: A Predictive Analytics
COVID-19 pandemic has questioned the way healthcare operations take place globally as the healthcare professionals face an unprecedented task of controlling and treating the COVID-19 infected patients with a highly straining and draining facility due to the erratic admissions of infected patients. H...
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Veröffentlicht in: | IEEE transactions on engineering management 2023-09, Vol.70 (9), p.3229-3243 |
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Format: | Artikel |
Sprache: | eng |
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Zusammenfassung: | COVID-19 pandemic has questioned the way healthcare operations take place globally as the healthcare professionals face an unprecedented task of controlling and treating the COVID-19 infected patients with a highly straining and draining facility due to the erratic admissions of infected patients. However, COVID-19 is considered as a white swan event. Yet, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare operations is highly uncertain and disruptive making it as a black swan event. Therefore, the study explores the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on healthcare operations and develops machine learning-based forecasting models using time series data to foresee the progression of COVID-19 and further using predictive analytics to better manage healthcare operations. The prediction error of the proposed model is found to be 0.039 for new cases and 0.006 for active COVID-19 cases with respect to mean absolute percentage error. The proposed simulated model further could generate predictive analytics and yielded future recovery rate, resource management ratios, and average cycle time of a patient tested COVID-19 positive. Further, the study will help healthcare professionals to devise better resilience and decision-making for managing uncertainty and disruption in healthcare operations. |
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ISSN: | 0018-9391 1558-0040 |
DOI: | 10.1109/TEM.2021.3076603 |