Simulation of casualty sustainment during naval combat operations

Accurate forecasts of the casualties likely to be sustained during naval warfare allow sufficient resources to be programmed to meet the medical demands of the operation while at the same time minimizing resource overallocation. A simulation tool called the shipboard casualty projection system (SHIPCAS) has recently been developed to assist planners in medical resource programming. SHIPCAS is a forecasting tool that projects WIA (wounded-in-action), KIA (killed-in action), and DNBI (disease and non-battle injuries) incidence among naval surface forces. By simulating ship strikes during naval operations, SHIPCAS provides medical planners with the injury and illness estimates required to assist in determining the needed medical resources. The SHIPCAS system models casualties afloat by allowing the user to define a specific scenario in terms of task force composition, expected battle intensity, and length of operation. The model then produces graphical and tabular information detailing the total number of casualties across the operation, the daily average number of casualties, the maximum daily number of casualties, and the casualty rates per 1000 strength per day. In addition to projecting the number of ships hit and the resulting casualties, SHIPCAS also provides estimates of the temporal points in the operation during which ship strikes are most likely.