Subway Passenger Flow Prediction for Special Events Using Smart Card Data

In order to reduce passenger delays and prevent severe overcrowding in the subway system, it is necessary to accurately predict the short-term passenger flow during special events. However, few studies have been conducted to predict the subway passenger flow under these conditions. Traditional methods, such as the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, were commonly used to analyze regular traffic demands. These methods usually neglected the volatility (heteroscedasticity) in passenger flow influenced by unexpected external factors. This paper, therefore, proposed a generic framework to analyze short-term passenger flow, considering the dynamic volatility and nonlinearity of passenger flow during special events. Four different generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models, along with the ARIMA model, were used to model the mean and volatility of passenger flow based on the transit smart card data from two stations near the Olympic Sports Center, Nanjing, China. Multiple statistical methods were applied to evaluate the performance of the hybrid models. The results indicate that the volatility of passenger flow had significant nonlinear and asymmetric features during special events. The proposed framework could effectively capture the mean and volatility of passenger flow, and outperform the traditional methods in terms of accuracy and reliability. Overall, this paper can help transit agencies to better understand the deterministic and stochastic changes of the passenger flow, and implement precautionary countermeasures for large crowds in a subway station before and after special events.