Power system probabilistic cost production simulation with wind power penetration based on multi-state system theory

A new model and the relevant algorithm for the power system probabilistic cost production simulation with wind power penetration based on chronological load curve using universal generating function (UGF) methods of multi-state system theory considering the characteristics of both load and wind power are presented in this paper. The power output models of wind farm, conventional units and load considering the reliability of conventional units and wind turbine generators(WTGs), wind speed correlation and load forecast uncertainty are developed using universal generating function methods in each sub-period. The special operators for these UGFs are defined to describe the process of the power system probabilistic cost production simulation with wind power penetration. The calculation and analysis have been executed on the IEEE-RTS test system integrated wind farms.