Modelling and prediction techniques for dynamic overhead line rating

Due to the deregulation of the power supply industry and the continuing need for network expansion, there is pressure to maximize utilization of the existing transmission and distribution networks. Compared to the traditional static line rating, a dynamic line rating identifies the ampacity in real time according to the measured weather conditions, taking the wind cooling effect into account that allows extra power to be accommodated. The physical modelling techniques established in IEEE and CIGRE standards are based on the physical relationships of the conductor, which require a number of predetermined parameters and engineering judgements. Therefore, this paper compares different modelling approached, including the statistical and Artificial Intelligent models, which only require the monitored data to be collected. Also, the variability of local weather within a short period has been assessed that it is proven that these two methods have the ability to forecast the future conductor temperature based on present measured data and forecasted current.