Supply chain profit analysis in uncertainties of supply and demand

Considering the uncertainties both in suppliers' production and assembly manufacturers' demand for parts, the balancing of profits are analyzed by applying penalties and outsourcing, which in three-level supply chain based on 3PL-hub, which includes suppliers, 3PL-hub and manufacturers. Centralized decision-making and decentralized decision-making models are established respectively. When the whole supply chain profit reaches to maximum, the optimal planned output of suppliers and the optimal order quantity of manufacturers are achieved. According to the above optimization result, the tactics for benefit balance and the scheme of gain distribution are established based on the decision function of the profits and cooperation agreements among the nodes of supply chain, which can make the total profit of supply chain up to the maximum and impel to reach coordination. Finally, the feasibility of this method is demonstrated by an example.