Public policy analysis using three systems science techniques

A working example of a merger of three system science techniques: simulation, evaluation, and optimization is presented. A system dynamics model of energy production in the United States is used to calculate the effects of various energy policies, while a multiattribute measurement model is used to evaluate those effects. Optimization procedures are used to find the policies that lead to the "best" performance of the simulation model when judged in multiattribute fashion. In the illustrative example, results are presented for both a simulation model that uses over 300 variables and five policies and also a multiattribute evaluation model with a dozen attributes. The illustration is the effect of counting short-term impacts in the choice of energy policy in the United States.