Toward a marine ecological forecasting system

With access to growing streams of data from monitoring and observing networks, expanding computing power, and increasing model sophistication, ecological forecasting is moving from research realm to proactive management application. While many operational forecasting efforts focus on predicting the physical environment (e.g., precipitation, tides, and runoff forecasts), efforts are accelerating toward development of more routine and authoritative ecological forecasts. Operational ecological forecasting requires a new era in transdisciplinary science and collaboration among stakeholders in such areas as meteorology, hydrology, climatology, oceanography, data assimilation, marine research and technology development, resource management, spatially planning, and environmental modeling. As our scientific understanding of ecosystem structure and function have matured the ability to provide probabilistic forecasts is becoming viable for a number of critical coastal environment, health, and safety issues (e.g., harmful algal blooms, dissolved oxygen concentration, water quality/beach closure, coral bleaching, living resource distribution, and pathogen progression). An operational ecological forecasting system depends upon the assimilation of high quality data into models, including real time in situ and remote satellite observations, air-sea forcing fields, nutrient fluxes, end-to-end food webs, weather and climate reanalysis and other historical data. While many data assimilation methods have been developed and research results demonstrated over the last decade, for marine ecological data and modeling, data assimilation remains limited. Improved models and additional high quality data (in space and time) are necessary to ensure that sensors, instrumented platforms and innovative marine technology provide a full suite of capabilities. The operational concept must draw on standards for data integration and communications, and platform interoperability to ensure optimal use of core regional variables. It is envisioned that model development will be collaborative and community based, optimizing a mix of technologies from national centers and regional networks as well as academia, industry, tribal communities, and other partners. This paper will discuss steps towards a national marine ecological forecasting system that will operate a broad suite of ecological forecasts to better serve the Nation's needs.