Prediction of the Number of International Tourists in China Based on Gray Model (1,1)

A gray model for international tourists prediction in China is established based on gray system theory and related data since 1978. Tested by posterior check and Small probability, the model is proved qualified to predict the number of international tourists with high elevation fitting precision. Gray system theory is a powerful tool to study tourist phenomena, because tourism system is belonging to gray system. This paper will be a useful reference to the study on tourism sequence prediction.