Modeling low probability/high consequence events: an aviation safety risk model

In this paper, we present an overview of an aviation system risk model (ASRM) that assesses the impact of new technology insertions or products designed to mitigate the likelihood or consequence of aviation accidents. In the aviation industry, accidents occur very infrequently, yet it is still critical to further reduce their rate of occurrence. There are analogous scenarios in many industries and organizations, which must aggressively analyze events that occur with a very low probability because the implications or repercussions are so very severe or extreme. While the occurrence of these events is already very rare, extensive effort and analysis is devoted to further reducing or eliminating the probability. Existing methods and models are already useful, but because of the importance of these failures, new modeling perspectives can add additional insights to further enhance safety. The ASRM, developed with joint support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), is an example of a model devoted to this class of 'low probability-high consequence' events. The ASRM is demonstrated with a model developed for a certain aircraft accident type known as controlled flight into terrain (CFIT)