Investigation of forward citation count as a patent analysis method

Patent citation counts have been used extensively as a patent valuation technique because the information necessary for conducting analysis can be easily gathered and applied to mathematical models. Dominant theory asserts that patents with higher forward citation counts have greater economic value relative to other patents. We focus on evaluating the validity of the patent citation count theory. Three hypotheses that examine the relationship of forward citations with other aspects of patents are presented. In these hypothesis, three relationships are examined: the relationship between a patent's forward citation count and the average number of forward citations for patents in its innovation space, the size of the patent's portfolio, and the patent's second generation forward citation counts. While most of the results proved to be inconclusive, we found evidence that use of forward citations may be problematic.