Predicting the Effect of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Crimean Juniper

Aim of study: The main purpose of the present study is to model present and future potential distribution areas of the Crimean juniper (Juniperus excelsa M. BIEB.) under climate change. Area of study: The study was carried out in the Lakes District that covers Burdur, Isparta and Antalya provinces in the west of the Mediterranean region. Material and methods: During the study, the inventory data of 40 productive juniper stands in the region were collected. The future projections for the study area were made for the year 2070 with all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios and 19 bioclimatic predictors from HadGEM2-ES. Modeling process was performed by using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method. Main results: The AUC value of the model was determined as 0.966 ± 0.028. The model identified that Precipitation of Driest Month, Temperature Seasonality, Precipitation of Coldest Quarter, Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Diurnal Range were the major variables influencing the current and future distributions of the species. According to the models, there will be a dramatic decrease in the potential distribution of the Crimean juniper. Consequently, the results from all these studies will be able to create an effective base for the biodiversity and ecosystem planning studies to be realized according to the climate change scenarios. Highlights: Understanding how climate change will affect the distribution of plant species in the future is an important topic in ecological researches. Climate change scenarios are the most preferred parameters to remove this uncertainty. It is predicted that the Crimean juniper will be affected by climate change and its distribution will decrease dramatically. Çalışmanın amacı: Bu çalışmanın amacı Boylu ardıç (Juniperus excelsa M. BIEB.) türünün günümüz ve gelecek için potansiyel dağılımlarının iklim değişimine göre modellenmesidir. Çalışma alanı: Çalışma Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde bulunan Burdur, Isparta ve Antalya illerini kapsayan Göller Bölgesi içerisinde gerçekleştirilmiştir. Materyal ve yöntem: çalışmada herhangi bir hastalık belirtisi olmayan, kozalak verimi ve boy gelişimi iyi olan, saf ve doğal 40 farklı boylu ardıç meşçeresi kayıt altına alınmıştır. Geleceğe yönelik kestirimler 2070 yılına ait olarak, Temsili Konsantrasyon Rotaları senaryoları için HadGEM2-ES projeksiyonundan temin edilen 19 biyoklima verisine göre gerçekleştirilmiştir. Modelleme işlemi için Maksimum Entropi (MaxEnt) yöntemi kullanılmıştır.