A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for Haiti

In this document we consider various scenarios related to changes in policies and exogenous conditions; our purpose is to assess various vulnerabilities and opportunities for Haiti. The analytical work leading to the identification of those scenarios included: the analysis of Haiti’s economic and social trajectories since the sixties, “Growth diagnostics” methods, and techniques for the discovery of “development gaps” and key drivers of productivity. In terms of method, the simulation analysis in this document is based on a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model designed for medium- to long-run development strategy analysis. Results from the CGE model scenarios are passed on to a microsimulation model that relies on household survey data to assess effects on poverty and inequality.