NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE CLIMATOLOGY OF WINDS IN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF ICELAND

Flow over Iceland has been simulated over a fifteen year period using the PSU/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model. There is a considerable spatial variability in the mean annual wind speed as well as temporal variability between the four seasons (SON, DJF, MAM and JJA). This variability can to a large extent be explained by a combination of large scale seasonal effects and orographic processes that are theoretically fairly well known. However, theoretical knowledge of these processes is of limited use for producing quantitative maps of the wind climate as is done here. These maps can be used as a first step towards assessment of wind energy resources. The simulations indicate that the mean winds are very strong over the largest glaciers and at their foothills. The simulations are in general in fairly good agreement with observed wind speeds. Observed discrepancies can be explained by the model resolution, i.e. the orography not being properly resolved and/or incorrect land use parameters as well as uncertainties in observations and sub-grid effects at individual observation sites.