Dynamic of the Disablement Process in Ageing Populations

This paper aims at projecting the disabled population aged 60 or more, and at identifying the factors that impact those projections. To this aim, we develop a novel methodological approach which allows identifying the role of different parameters (e.g. a change in the probability to remain autonomous, a change in the distribution of survival gains across disability levels) in the forecast of morbidity. This paper focuses on the methodological aspect of this new method. It also provides, as an illustration, a projection of the French elderly disabled population in 2060, relying on the French CARE‑M data and on the European data SHARE. It shows, among other results, that matching the past evolution of the disability‑free life expectancy ratio to the total life expectancy requires optimistic assumptions regarding the evolution of the probability to remain autonomous.