Risk premium, price of risk and expected volatility in the oil market: Evidence from survey data

This paper contributes to the literature on crude oil risk premiums by providing ex-ante measures of these premiums using survey oil price expectations over an extended period. These ex-ante premiums are uncorrelated with ex-post premiums commonly used in existing studies, whereas they are more relevant as they directly influence investors' decision-making. Utilizing a portfolio choice model, we explain the ex-ante premium as the product of the price of risk and the expected variance, both varying over time and across horizons. We estimate this relationship using a multivariate state-space framework. From our estimated risk prices we find, on average, that investors exhibit risk-seeking behaviour in the short term and risk aversion in the long term. It follows that the term structure of oil risk premiums are prominently upward-sloping. Additionally, consistent with the prospect theory, investors are found to be predominantly risk averse in a context of expected gains and risk-seeking in a context of expected losses. Finally, the dynamics of risk prices are shown to be driven by identifiable economic, financial, and oil market-related factors. •The ex-ante approach to modeling oil risk premium is more relevant than the ex-post.•Ex-ante premium is determined as the price of risk times the expected variance.•Agents' risk attitudes are horizon-dependent and in line with the prospect theory.•Risk prices are driven by economic, financial and oil market-related factors.•The term structure of oil risk premiums is predominantly upward sloping.