Redistribution of fisheries catch potential in Mediterranean and North European waters under climate change scenarios

The Mediterranean Sea is a hotspot of global warming where key commercial species, such as demersal and pelagic fishes, and cephalopods, could experience abrupt distribution shifts in the near future. However, the extent to which these range shifts may impact fisheries catch potential remains poorly understood at the scale of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). Here, we evaluated the projected changes in Mediterranean fisheries catches potential, by target fishing gears, under different climate scenarios throughout the 21st century. We show that the future Mediterranean maximum catch potential may decrease considerably by the end of the century under high emission scenarios in South Eastern Mediterranean countries. These projected decreases range between −20 to −75 % for catch by pelagic trawl and seine, −50 to −75 % for fixed nets and traps and exceed −75 % for benthic trawl. In contrast, fixed nets and traps, and benthic trawl fisheries may experience an increase in their catch potential in the North and Celtic seas, while future catches by pelagic trawl and seine may decrease in the same areas. We show that a high emission scenario may considerably amplify the future redistribution of fisheries catch potential across European Seas, thus highlighting the need to limit global warming. Our projections at the manageable scale of EEZ and the quantification of climate-induced impacts on a large part of the Mediterranean and European fisheries is therefore a first, and considerable step toward the development of climate mitigation and adaptations strategies for the fisheries sector. [Display omitted] •Changes in Mediterranean fisheries Maximum Catch Potential (MCP) by target fishing gears, under different climate scenarios throughout the 21st century were evaluated.•The future MCP may decrease by the end of the century under high emission scenario in South Eastern Mediterranean countries (-20 to -75% for catch by pelagic trawl and seine, -50% to -75% fof fixed nets and traps and more than -75% for benthic trawl). All MCP increase in the North Atlantic Sea, except MCP by Pelagic trawl and seine.•Limiting the climate warming to intermediate values instead of the intense warming could limit the loss in mean MCP by 22% in the Mediterranean and the gain by 3.5% in the Atlantic coasts.