Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team

In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed. •A new method is developed to provide forecasts under extreme uncertainty.•Uncertainly is addressed by applying judgemental adjustments to scenarios.•A two steps method combines forecasting, judgemental adjustment and scenarios.•A COVID-19 risk exposure index objectively ranks different destinations.•The twenty destinations studied will have different recovery patterns.