Climate-driven shifts in decapod larvae assemblages in a temperate estuary

The study examines the complex impact of climatic patterns, driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), on regional climate, hydrology, and sea surface temperatures. Focused on the period from 2003 to 2012, the research specifically investigates the influence of thermal variability on decapod larval communities. Monthly zooplanktonic sampling conducted at the Mondego Estuary, Portugal, entrance over a decade revealed the prevalence of Carcinus maenas, Diogenes pugilator, and Pachigrapsus marmoratus larvae. These assemblages displayed notable interannual and seasonal fluctuations, often corresponding with changes in sea surface temperatures. Significant system shifts around 2007, instigated by the large-scale NAO, led to subsequent modifications in sea surface temperature and decapod larvae communities' dynamics. Post-2007, there was an upward trajectory in both species’ abundance and richness. Phenologically during the former period, the community exhibited two abundance peaks, with the earlier peak occurring sooner, attributed to heightened temperatures instead of the unique peak exhibited before 2007. The research further elucidated the occurrences of Marine Heatwaves (MHW) in the region, delving into their temporal progression influenced by the NAO. Although water temperature emerged as a crucial factor influencing decapod larvae communities annually and seasonally, the study did not observe discernible impacts of MHW events on these communities. These communities represent essential trophic links and are crucial for the survival success of adult decapods. Given the rapid pace of climate change and increasing temperatures, it is imperative to assess whether these environmental shifts, particularly in thermal conditions, affect these meroplanktonic communities. [Display omitted] •NAO-driven shifts post-2007 boosted decapod larvae abundance in Mondego estuary.•Species prevalence correlated with sea surface temperature, especially post-2007.•Warmer sea surface temperatures hastened decapod larvae phenological peaks.•The influence of marine heatwave events on the community was not perceived.