Data-driven mid-air collision risk modelling using extreme-value theory

Mid-air collision risk estimation is crucial for maintaining aviation safety and improving the efficiency of air traffic procedures. This paper introduces a novel, data-driven methodology for estimating the probability of mid-air collisions between aircraft by combining Monte Carlo simulation and the Peaks Over Threshold approach from Extreme Value Theory. This innovative approach has substantial advantages over traditional methods. Firstly, it reduces the number of assumptions about the traffic flow compared to traditional analytical methods. In fact, data-driven techniques require fewer assumptions, as they inherently capture the structures of the traffic flow within the underlying data. Secondly, it converges faster than methods based on crude Monte Carlo simulation. Notably, by employing Extreme Value Theory, this approach enables efficient evaluation of low-probabilities, which are commonly found in collision risk modelling. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through estimating the probability of a mid-air collision in a real-world practical example. The case study investigates the risk of collisions between departures and go-arounds in the terminal airspace at Zurich Airport, highlighting the potential for improved safety and efficiency in air traffic management.