Potential impacts of pandemics on global warming, agricultural production, and biodiversity loss

The rising frequency of infectious diseases under climate change poses an emerging threat to environmental and agricultural sustainability by consuming large quantities of materials. The demand for crops to produce personal protective equipment (PPE) competes for land and fertilizers, leads to cropland expansion, and accelerates climate change, but the ecological impacts remain unclear. Here we explore the impacts of pandemics on global warming, agricultural production, and biodiversity loss in an Earth system model by developing relationships between consumption of PPE and the rate of infection during COVID-19. Meeting the demand for PPE would increase production of cotton lint, corn, and natural rubber, which accelerates global warming by 0.2°C with 1.8% additional species losses by 2100. Our results suggest that the risks of public health, food security, climate change, and ecological integrity have been connected to each other, which should be considered when predicting the impacts of future pandemics. [Display omitted] •Pandemics increase crop demands in the production of personal protective equipment•The emerging demand for crops accelerates climate change and biodiversity loss•Pandemics reduce allowable emissions to meet the Paris climate targets•Early mitigation and adaptation measures can reduce the impacts of pandemics As the risk of infectious diseases persists, the progress toward sustainable development goals is facing emerging challenges. In the containment of pandemics, large quantities of crops are consumed to produce personal protective equipment. Under a rising frequency of infectious diseases, the emerging demand for crops competes for land and fertilizers, leading to expansion of cropland and acceleration of climate change. We explore the impacts of pandemics on global warming, food supply, and biodiversity loss based on the empirical relationship between consumption of personal protective equipment and the rate of infection during the COVID-19 pandemic. The prevalence of pandemics will exacerbate food insecurity and global warming while accelerating biodiversity loss. Our results suggest that the risks of public health, food security, climate change, and ecological integrity may be inter-related, and stronger abatement of greenhouse gas emissions is needed to mitigate the impacts. In light of a rising frequency of infectious diseases, there is an urgent need to understand the ecological impacts of pandemics. In particular, large quanti