Prevalence of chronic pain in opioid-maintained patients using the capture–recapture method: a nationwide population-based study

Few studies all based on classical surveys have provided prevalence estimates of chronic pain (CP) in opioid-maintained patients (OMPs) but often had a limited patient sample size and a great variability in the prevalence estimates. This study sought to assess the prevalence of CP in the exhaustive population of OMPs using the capture-recapture method applied to the French nationwide health care database. Capture-recapture methods are increasingly used to estimate the prevalence of chronic conditions but have never been used in the specific context of CP in OMPs. Three large medical-administrative sources were used: the prescription drug database (A-list), the national hospital discharge database (M-list), and the pain center database (C-list). Between 2015 and 2016, 160,429 OMPs aged 15 years and older were identified and age- and sex-matched with 160,429 non-OMPs. All patients treated with analgesic drugs for ≥6 months (A-list) or diagnosed with CP (M- and C-list) were included. Capture-recapture analyses were performed to yield CP estimates with their 95% confidence intervals using log-linear models. In 2015 to 2016, 12,765 OMPs and 2938 non-OMPs with CP were captured. Most patients were male (67%) in OMPs and non-OMPs; median ages for OMPs and non-OMPs were 46 (interquartile range: 38-51) and 48 (41-53) years, respectively. The CP prevalence estimated in OMPs and non-OMPs ranged from 23.6% (14.9-46.2) to 32.1% (28.6-36.3) and from 7.28% (3.98-18.4) to 9.32% (7.42-12.1), respectively. This first study on CP in the exhaustive population of OMPs using the capture-recapture method demonstrated a high prevalence of CP in OMPs, 3- to 4-fold than in the general population.