Extending the Balbi fire spread Model for field scale conditions: the case of shrubland fires

The 'Balbi model' is a simplified rate of fire spread model aimed at providing fast and accurate simulations for fire spread that can be used by fire managers under operational conditions. This model describes the steady-state spread rate of surface fires by accounting for both radiation and convection heat transfer processes. In the present work the original Balbi model developed for laboratory conditions is improved with changes that address specificities of outdoor fires, such as fuel complexes with a mix of live and dead materials, a larger scale and an open environment. The model is calibrated against a small training dataset (n=25) of shrubland fires conducted in Turkey. A sensitivity analysis of model output is presented and its predictive capacity against a larger independent dataset of experimental fires in shrubland fuels