DEMETER: A first step or giant leap in the use of a seasonal ensemble prediction system forapplication users?

The research interests of the CLIVAR community in climate variability have direct application for the impacts groups whose recent work is included in this paper. Further, the importance of the user application community in the utilisation of climate forecasts and probabilistic seasonal forecasts is recognised. There is, however, limited literature on probabilistic application forecasts that applysome form of seasonal scale forecasts with few current reports of probabilistic application models or analyses running ‘within’ a seasonal scale ensemble prediction system.This paper reports on four such applications which have been run with the DEMETER probabilistic seasonal hindcasts.