Integrating genetic variants into clinical models for hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification in cirrhosis

Identifying individuals at higher risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is pivotal to improve the performance of surveillance strategies. Herein, we aimed to evaluate the ability of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to refine HCC risk stratification. Six SNPs in PNPLA3, TM6SF2, HSD17B13, APOE, and MBOAT7 affecting lipid turnover and one variant involved in the Wnt–β-catenin pathway (WNT3A-WNT9A rs708113) were assessed in patients with alcohol-related and/or HCV-cured cirrhosis included in HCC surveillance programmes (prospective CirVir and CIRRAL cohorts). Their prognostic value for HCC occurrence was assessed using Fine-Gray models combined into a 7-SNP genetic risk score (GRS). The predictive ability of two clinical scores (a routine non-genetic model determined by multivariate analysis and the external aMAP score) with/without the GRS was evaluated by C-indices. The standardised net benefit was derived from decision curves. Among 1,145 patients, 86 (7.5%) developed HCC after 43.7 months. PNPLA3 and WNT3A-WNT9A variants were independently associated with HCC occurrence. The GRS stratified the population into three groups with progressively increased 5-year HCC incidence (Group 1 [n = 627, 5.4%], Group 2 [n = 276, 10.7%], and Group 3 [n = 242, 15.3%]; p