Development of a Predictive Score for Mortality at 3- and 12-Month after Discharge from an Acute Geriatric Unit as a Trigger for Advanced Care Planning

BACKGROUND: There is a need for a mortality score that can be used to trigger advanced care planning among older patients discharged from acute geriatric units (AGUs). OBJECTIVE: To develop a prognostic score for 3- and 12-month mortality after discharge from an AGU, based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment, in-hospital events, and the exclusion of patients already receiving palliative care. METHODS: DAMAGE is a French multicentre, prospective, cohort study. The broad inclusion criteria ensured that the cohort is representative of patients treated in an AGU. The DAMAGE participants underwent a comprehensive geriatric assessment, a daily clinical check-up, and follow-up visits 3 and 12 months after discharge. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to develop a prognostic score for the derivation and validation subsets. RESULTS: 3509 patients were assessed and 3112 were included. The patient population was very older and frail or dependant, with a high proportion of deaths at 3 months (n=455, 14.8%) and at 12 months (n=1014, 33%). The score predicted an individual risk of mortality ranging from 1% to 80% at 3 months and between 5% and 93% at 12 months, with an area under the receiving operator characteristic curve in the validation cohort of 0.728 at 3 months and 0.733 at 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: Our score predicted a broad range of risks of death after discharge from the AGU. Having this information at the time of hospital discharge might trigger a discussion on advanced care planning and end-of-life care with very old, frail patients.