Do applications respond to changes in asylum policies in European countries?

We analyze the role of origin-destination-time specific policy measures in shaping the location choices of asylum seekers across European countries. We estimate a gravity equation that reflects the uncertainty that asylum seekers face concerning the chances of obtaining refugee protection, the processing time and the risk of repatriation. German efforts to expand their processing capacity are correlated with a significant increase in applications from origins with high recognition rates, which were mostly diverted away from Sweden. For Syrians, the observed variations in processing times increased applications in Germany by 16.1 percent, and led to a 35.3 percent reduction in Sweden between 2014 and 2015. •We analyze how the distribution of asylum applications responds to policy changes.•We draw on data on asylum applications to Europe between 2009 and 2017.•Gravity equation modified to account for the peculiar features of asylum flows.•Recognition rate, processing times and risk of repatriation shaped asylum flows.