Demand-side management strategy in stand-alone hybrid photovoltaic systems with real-time simulation of stochastic electricity consumption behavior

•Design of stand-alone hybrid PV systems including a new real-time DSM strategy.•Simulation of ‘real-time’ domestic demand based on Bayesian network and Monte Carlo simulation.•Benefits of DSM in the enhancement of the system’s performance, benefits for users, and user comfort.•Parametric study of the benefits of DSM with varying diesel prices and battery capacity. Demand-side management (DSM) represents a potential way to improve the profitability of renewable energy systems. In this paper, power management including a new DSM strategy in a stand-alone hybrid Photovoltaic (PV) Diesel/Battery system with multiple customers has been studied. A new probabilistic model of the consumer behavior based on Bayesian network and Monte Carlo simulation has been carried out so as to capture the real-time and stochastic aspect of the demand. The analysis has been made by means of a one-year period simulation of the whole system. Statistical data on consumers and meteorological observation data have been used to set the simulation’s parameters. Numerical results showed that with the implementation of DSM, energy costs are reduced by 11.3% for equal total consumption, and the use of solar energy resources rose to 54%. This provides insight on the significant performance enhancement offered by a DSM scheme in such a system.