Short-lived climate forcers have long-term climate impacts via the carbon–climate feedback
Short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) like methane, ozone and aerosols have a shorter atmospheric lifetime than CO 2 and are often assumed to have a short-term effect on the climate system: should their emissions cease, so would their radiative forcing (RF). However, via their climate impact, SLCFs ca...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Nature climate change 2020-09, Vol.10 (9), p.851-855 |
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Zusammenfassung: | Short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) like methane, ozone and aerosols have a shorter atmospheric lifetime than CO
2
and are often assumed to have a short-term effect on the climate system: should their emissions cease, so would their radiative forcing (RF). However, via their climate impact, SLCFs can affect carbon sinks and atmospheric CO
2
, causing additional climate change. Here, we use a compact Earth system model to attribute CO
2
RF to direct CO
2
emissions and to climate–carbon feedbacks since the pre-industrial era. We estimate the climate–carbon feedback contributed 93 ± 50 mW m
−2
(~5%) to total RF of CO
2
in 2010. Of this, SLCF impacts were −13 ± 50 mW m
−2
, made up of cooling (−115 ± 43 mW m
−2
) and warming (102 ± 26 mW m
−2
) terms that largely cancel. This study illustrates the long-term impact that short-lived species have on climate and indicates that past (and future) change in atmospheric CO
2
cannot be attributed only to CO
2
emissions.
Short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) are thought to have short-term impacts relative to CO
2
. A compact Earth system model estimates SLCFs have caused substantial, long-term impacts via carbon–climate feedbacks since the pre-industrial era but species-dependent impacts of opposite sign largely cancel. |
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ISSN: | 1758-678X 1758-6798 |
DOI: | 10.1038/s41558-020-0841-x |