A risk assessment approach applied to the growth of Erwinia carotovora in vegetable juice for variable temperature conditions

Risk assessment for food spoilage relies on probabilistic models of microbial growth to predict the likelihood that microbial populations will exceed predefined spoilage levels. To assist in the design and management of industrial food quality systems, predictive microbiological models have to incorporate major risk factors such as the variability in the microbial strain, environment and initial contamination levels. In addition, the application of results measured under laboratory conditions to the less controlled environment of an industrial process usually also involves uncertainty. Extra information regarding this uncertainty must be factored into industrial microbial risk assessment. In this paper, based on our previous analysis of the growth of Erwinia carotovora we show how different factors contribute to the risk of microbial spoilage of vegetable juice and we demonstrate an effective way of including these factors into risk assessment models. The association of risk components with different unavoidable and manageable factors is also valuable for the development of optimal strategies for reducing microbial risk.