Modelling the effects of temperature and leaf wetness on monocyclic infection in a tropical fungal pathosystem

Modelling the epidemiology of water yam anthracnose (Dioscorea alata) caused by the fungus Colletotrichum gloeosporioides is an important research goal, as it will allow the investigation of a wide range of scenarios of new practices to reduce the disease impact before experimentation in the field. Developing such a model requires a prior knowledge of the fungus’s response to the environmental conditions, which will be affected by pest management. In this work, we first measured the response of the fungus to the main physical environmental factors controlling its development, namely temperature (ranging from 18 °C to 36 °C) and wetness duration (from 2 h to 72 h). As response variables, we measured the percentage of formed appressoria (relative to the total number of spores), the length of the latent period (time lag between inoculation and first symptoms observed), and the rate of necrotic lesion extension (percentage of diseased leaf surface at different time steps). These variables allow us to estimate the effects of temperature and wetness duration on the success of infection (appressoria formation) and the subsequent rate of disease development (latent period length and lesion extension rate). The data were fitted to non-linear models chosen for their ability to describe the observed patterns. From our data and model analyses, we were able to estimate parameters such as the optimal and maximal temperatures (25–28 °C and 36 °C, respectively), the required wetness duration to reach 20 % of infection success and the time to reach 5 % disease severity as a function of temperature.