Predicting shelf life gain of fresh strawberries ‘Charlotte cv’ in modified atmosphere packaging

•An upgraded mathematical model for MAP is developed.•A model of fresh produce deterioration and shelf life prediction is proposed.•A Maximal Acceptable Deterioration is assessed based on consumer willingness to purchase.•Quantification of shelf life gain is possible using deterioration curve to consumers’ acceptance.•Model validation on packed strawberries illustrated the approach. Fresh fruit and vegetable’s short shelf life is one of the main obstacle to their consumption leading to considerable food losses and wastes during the post-harvest steps. Modified atmosphere packaging (MAP) is able to significantly increase their shelf life. The objective of this work is to quantify the gain of shelf life obtained under MAP. This was applied for strawberries as model food. Deterioration was assessed to define products’ shelf life. A model of food deterioration, including effects of carbon dioxide and temperature, was developed and validated in both isothermal and non-isothermal conditions. A Maximal Acceptable Deterioration (Dacc) of 13% was assessed from dedicated analysis of consumer willingness to purchase and deterioration curves measured. An upgraded modelling tool was then developed by coupling models of the literature, for respiration and permeation, and the proposed deterioration model. The upgraded modelling tool was validated at 5, 10 and 20 °C on strawberries and in dynamic temperatures to mimic the post-harvest storage conditions. RMSE values were lower than 2.5% for O2 and CO2 and deterioration curves, in both isothermal and non-isothermal conditions. A shelf life gain of 0.33 d was obtained with MAP for the proposed temperature profile. Numerical exploration for different time/temperatures storage conditions, enable us to predict a gain of shelf life greater than 1 d, allowing to expect significant benefits in terms of shelf life gain for this product in MAP.