Prognostic Association of Major Frailty Domain Trajectories With 5-Year Mortality in Very Old Adults: Results From the PARTAGE Cohort Study

Abstract We aimed to identify trajectories of nutrition, cognitive function, and autonomy over time among very old adults and to assess their impact on mortality. A cohort of subjects aged ≥80 years (in 2007–2008) who were followed for 5 years in 72 Italian and French nursing homes was used for post hoc analyses. Body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2), Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score, and Katz Index of Independence in Activities of Daily Living (ADL) score were assessed at 4 time points. Information on vital status was collected during follow-up. Latent trajectory and Cox models were used. In the 710 subjects included, the mean age at inclusion was 88.0 (standard deviation, 4.8) years, and 78.9% were female. We identified 7 composite trajectories based on BMI, MMSE, and ADL values. As compared with the reference group (trajectory 7—stable overweight; preserved cognitive function and autonomy), 2 trajectories presented increased hazards of dying: trajectory 1 (stable overweight; moderately impaired, then declining, cognitive function and autonomy (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.26, 2.55)) and trajectory 6 (stable normal BMI; slight cognitive decline; and moderate, then degrading, loss of autonomy (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.15, 2.44)). The C-index was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.88). Repeated monitoring of BMI, MMSE score, and ADL in very old adults provides trajectories that produce better prognostic information than simple baseline assessment.