Bright spots among the world’s coral reefs

Data from over 2,500 reefs worldwide is used to identify 15 bright spots—sites where reef biomass is significantly higher than expected—and surveys of local experts in these areas suggest that strong sociocultural institutions and high levels of local engagement are among the factors supporting higher fish biomass. Bright spots among the world's coral reefs The health of the world's coral reefs, which provide goods and services for millions of people, is declining. Effective management of these ecosystems requires an understanding of the underlying drivers of reef decline. In a study that spans the gap between ecology and the social sciences, Joshua Cinner and colleagues develop a Bayesian hierarchical model, using data from more than 2,500 reefs worldwide, to predict reef fish biomass based on various socioeconomic drivers and environmental conditions. They identify 15 bright spots — sites where reef biomass is significantly higher than expected. The bright spots are found not only among iconic remote and pristine areas, but also where there are strong sociocultural institutions and high levels of local engagement. On the basis of this analysis, the authors argue for a refocus of coral reef conservation efforts away from locating and protecting remote, pristine sites, towards unlocking potential solutions from sites that have successfully confronted the coral reef crisis. Ongoing declines in the structure and function of the world’s coral reefs 1 , 2 require novel approaches to sustain these ecosystems and the millions of people who depend on them 3 . A presently unexplored approach that draws on theory and practice in human health and rural development 4 , 5 is to systematically identify and learn from the ‘outliers’—places where ecosystems are substantially better (‘bright spots’) or worse (‘dark spots’) than expected, given the environmental conditions and socioeconomic drivers they are exposed to. Here we compile data from more than 2,500 reefs worldwide and develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to generate expectations of how standing stocks of reef fish biomass are related to 18 socioeconomic drivers and environmental conditions. We identify 15 bright spots and 35 dark spots among our global survey of coral reefs, defined as sites that have biomass levels more than two standard deviations from expectations. Importantly, bright spots are not simply comprised of remote areas with low fishing pressure; they include localities where human populations an