Mean-field avalanche size exponent for sandpiles on Galton–Watson trees

We show that in Abelian sandpiles on infinite Galton–Watson trees, the probability that the total avalanche has more than t topplings decays as t - 1 / 2 . We prove both quenched and annealed bounds, under suitable moment conditions. Our proofs are based on an analysis of the conductance martingale of Morris (Probab Theory Relat Fields 125:259–265, 2003), that was previously used by Lyons et al. (Electron J Probab 13(58):1702–1725, 2008) to study uniform spanning forests on Z d , d ≥ 3 , and other transient graphs.