Geodetic secular velocity errors due to interannual surface loading deformation

Geodetic vertical velocities derived from data as short as 3 yr are often assumed to be representative of linear deformation over past decades to millennia. We use two decades of surface loading deformation predictions due to variations of atmospheric, oceanic and continental water mass to assess the effect on secular velocities estimated from short time-series. The interannual deformation is time-correlated at most locations over the globe, with the level of correlation depending mostly on the chosen continental water model. Using the most conservative loading model and 5-yr-long time-series, we found median vertical velocity errors of 0.5 mm yr−1 over the continents (0.3 mm yr−1 globally), exceeding 1 mm yr−1 in regions around the southern Tropic. Horizontal velocity errors were seven times smaller. Unless an accurate loading model is available, a decade of continuous data is required in these regions to mitigate the impact of the interannual loading deformation on secular velocities.