Summer drought and canopy opening increase the strength of the oak seedlings–shrub spatial association

• Context The knowledge of how shrub–seedling interactions vary with summer drought, canopy opening, and tree species is crucial for adapting forest management to climate change. • Aims The aim of this study was to assess variation in shrub–oak recruitment associations along a south–north drought climate gradient and between two levels of canopy cover in coastal dune forest communities in a climate change-adapted forest management perspective. • Material and methods Mapped data of associational patterns of seedlings of three oak species with interspecific pooled shrubs were analyzed using a bivariate pair correlation function in 10 (0.315 ha) regeneration plots located in forest and recent gap sites along the climate gradient. An index of association strength was calculated in each plot and plotted against a summer moisture index. • Results The association strength increased with increasing summer drought from wet south to dry north and from closed forests to gaps. • Conclusion Consistent with facilitation theory, our results suggest that climate change may shift associational patterns in coastal dune forest communities towards more positive associations, in particular in canopy gaps. In a perspective of climate change, foresters may need to conserve understory shrubs in gaps in order to promote oak species regeneration.